Suppose for a moment that this design will work as described. What next? How do we get from here to the first public installation?
For a public-transit project of this scope, most people suggest approaching the federal government. We thought so too. Much to our surprise, we learned that about 20 years ago officials in the Department of Transportation decided the government wouldn't support any more research or development of PRT systems. The fact that computer electronics now cost only a fraction of what they did back then, or that automobile traffic has gotten 50 percent worse, doesn't seem to have made much of an impression on them--they'd made up their minds and didn't seem interested in re-examining the subject, thank you.
Thus unless something changes, the official position is that the federal government won't support any development or testing of this (or any other PRT) design.
Fortunately our design is likely to be so (relatively) affordable that it may be possible to do the unthinkable: to either build and operate loops of the system as a completely private venture, like the old traction (trolley) companies; or else to sell loops to cities on a turnkey basis.
Either way, we would first need to build a short, non-public demonstration loop--say, half a mile long, with four to six vehicles. This test loop could be built in a rural area of a low-cost state where land can be leased inexpensively.
Run the test vehicles 24/7 for a year, in all kinds of weather, and see what happens. When everything's been thoroughly debugged, invite transit decision-makers and large contractors from various cities to spend a couple of days riding on the system and learning about it--including estimated construction cost and time.
How much would such a demonstration cost? Since we'd only need to have full interiors, canopy actuators and air conditioning in two vehicles, and would only need enough length of windbreak to test, rather than equipping the entire loop length, we estimate the demonstration could be done for under $5 million, depending on the staffing level.
Again, the reason this number is so low is because the very small vehicles should cost less than $20,000 apiece, even in small quantities. Also, as noted earlier, a single lane of the bare guideway section should cost only around $60 per linear foot.
One thing we're pretty sure of is that commercial development of this design is going to require a fair-size company. Maybe some successful Silicon Valley CEO will decide this is worth trying.
A company that decided to develop
this design need not go into the construction business. Instead it
would probably be more advantageous to license the finished technology--and
the crucial operating software for vehicles and stops--to cities or other
entities for a royalty based on a percentage of the total installed cost,
excluding land.
If anyone would like to discuss this design or the overall concept, please email us at PRTdesign@cs.com